The Impact of Precipitation on Stock Market Returns in India

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of precipitation on Indian equity returns. This study empirically examines the effect of monsoon change on the numerous sectors such as automobile and metal amidst others and strikes a comparison with the returns of NIFTY 50 index which is considered as the optimum indicator for the Indian equity market. This study objectively questions the myth that monsoon is highly positively reflective of the returns of the equity market assuming the country to be an agrarian economy. This has been tested using the statistical tool of correlation. AR-GARCH model has been applied to investigate the market’s response to precipitation dynamics. All rainfall-related variables have been statistically adjusted to the scope of the study.