Strategic Scenario Planning for the Mobius Credit Card: Navigating Future Uncertainties in the Digital Banking Era

Abstract

The banking industry has undergone a digital transformation, significantly affecting customer interactions and operational efficiencies. Credit cards, evolving from exclusive tools to widely used financial products, now face challenges in the digital banking era. In Indonesia, rapid growth in digital banking and fintech innovations pose new opportunities and challenges for credit card products, such as the Mobius Credit Card launched by Pumpkin Bank. This study employs scenario planning to assess the future of Mobius Credit Card. The research involves analysing driving forces, critical uncertainties, and creating plausible scenarios using a 2x2 matrix. Data are collected through primary sources (interviews with key stakeholders) and secondary sources (literature review). Analytical frameworks include Jobs-to-be-Done Theory, Customer-based Brand Equity (CBBE), Porter’s Five Forces, PESTEL, and SWOT analyses. Four scenarios were identified: “Absolute One-for-All” (high market acceptance, low innovation), “Absolute One-for-One” (high acceptance, high innovation), “Non-Credit Supremacy” (low acceptance, high innovation), and “Death of a Dying Star” (low acceptance, low innovation). The analysis revealed that Mobius Credit Card should focus on improving service reliability, enhancing features, and exploring new revenue streams to stay competitive. Scenario planning is crucial for Mobius Credit Card to navigate future uncertainties. By integrating this approach, Mobius can proactively address potential risks and opportunities, ensuring strategic adaptability and resilience. Regular updates to scenarios will enhance Mobius’s ability to remain competitive in the evolving digital banking landscape.